Violence in Modern Mexico: The Threshold for a Non-International Armed Conflict

Document Type

Dissertation

Publication Date

2025

Abstract

From 2006 to the present, violent clashes between Mexico’s security forces, drug cartels, illegal armed groups, and gangs have resulted in over 430,000 intentional homicides between 2006 and 2023, and 114,000 people have gone missing. As a result, the death toll surpasses the armed conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan due to the violent situation in Mexico. The question is whether the nature, intensity, and violence reach the threshold to be classified as a non-international armed conflict (NIAC), as that term is understood under International Humanitarian Law. While cartels may not have a ‘tangible’ political component qualifying them as insurgents, they exert a significant political influence by controlling valuable natural resources, such as narcotics, water, minerals, fuel, and fertile agricultural land. They accomplish this without directly expressing their aims but successfully establishing a de facto regime in various parts of Mexico. These are critical reasons for violent territorial dominance and criminal governance disputes. The excessive brutality in killings, including the growing practice of anthropophagy, surpasses any other ongoing conflict in terms of the number of casualties, duration, and intense violence. In this study, I examine the historical progression and evolution of drug cartels over more than a century, as well as the factors that have contributed to the recent surge in extreme violence over the past two decades. I conclude that the criteria of Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions and other relevant international conventions and jurisprudence apply to the situation in Mexico.

Thus, exploring the correlation between the generally accepted criteria is imperative to determine if the level of violence between and among the Mexican armed forces, cartels, and armed groups qualifies as NIACs. This includes the disparity in tactical training, armament, and policy between security services from Mexico and the U.S., and Mexico’s lack of capacity to counter the cartels jointly with ordinary law enforcement measures. Despite the traditional definition, Mexico must recognize that the violent situations meet the Non-International Armed Conflict (NIAC) threshold. To support this, I compare the context of other conflicts with related problems, legal responses, and outcomes. The international community should intervene to de-escalate the level of brutality and to safeguard civilians and displaced individuals as part of the measures. This intervention should also address the challenges posed by the deteriorated judicial and law enforcement institutions. The United States and Mexico are responsible for implementing innovative policies and tactics.

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